A theory of fiscal policy response to an epidemic.

Governments worldwide have issued massive amounts of debt to inject fiscal stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper analyzes fiscal responses to an epidemic, in which interactions at work increase the risk of disease and mortality. Fiscal policies, which are designed to borrow against the future and provide transfers to individuals suffering economic hardship, can facilitate consumption smoothing while reduce hours worked and hence mitigate infections. We examine the optimal fiscal policy and characterize the condition under which fiscal policy improves social welfare. We then extend the model analyzing the static and dynamic pecuniary externalities under scale economies-the decrease in labor supply during the epidemic lowers the contemporaneous average wage rate while enhances the post-epidemic workforce health and productivity. We suggest that fiscal policy may not work effectively unless the government coordinates working time, and the optimal size of public debt is affected by production technology and disease severity and transmissibility.

Social impacts and costs of schizophrenia: a national cohort study using New Zealand linked administrative data.

AIM: To identify a national population of individuals living with schizophrenia in New Zealand, and to examine health, social support, justice, economic outcomes and estimated government costs compared to a matched comparison group. METHODS: Data were sourced from the Integrated Data Infrastructure. Individuals with a schizophrenia diagnosis in public hospital discharge or specialist secondary mental health service data, aged 18 to 64 and living in New Zealand were included in the schizophrenia population. Propensity score matching was used to select a comparison group of individuals without schizophrenia from the New Zealand resident population and compare outcomes and costs. RESULTS: In 2015 there were 18,096 people living with schizophrenia in New Zealand, a prevalence of 6.7 per 1,000 people. Compared to the matched comparison population, individuals with schizophrenia had higher hospitalisation rates for mental (OR=52.80) and physical (OR=1.18) health conditions. They were more likely to receive social welfare benefits (OR=17.64), less likely to be employed (OR=0.11) and had lower income ($26,226 lower). Per-person government costs were higher for the schizophrenia group across all domains, particularly health ($14,847 higher) and social support ($11,823 higher). CONCLUSION: Schizophrenia is associated with a range of adverse health, social and economic outcomes and considerably higher government costs compared to the general population.

Equity is more important for the social cost of methane than climate uncertainty.

The social cost of methane (SC-CH4) measures the economic loss of welfare caused by emitting one tonne of methane into the atmosphere. This valuation may in turn be used in cost-benefit analyses or to inform climate policies1-3. However, current SC-CH4 estimates have not included key scientific findings and observational constraints. Here we estimate the SC-CH4 by incorporating the recent upward revision of 25 per cent to calculations of the radiative forcing of methane4, combined with calibrated reduced-form global climate models and an ensemble of integrated assessment models (IAMs). Our multi-model mean estimate for the SC-CH4 is US$933 per tonne of CH4 (5-95 per cent range, US$471-1,570 per tonne of CH4) under a high-emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5), a 22 per cent decrease compared to estimates based on the climate uncertainty framework used by the US federal government5. Our ninety-fifth percentile estimate is 51 per cent lower than the corresponding figure from the US framework. Under a low-emissions scenario (RCP 2.6), our multi-model mean decreases to US$710 per tonne of CH4. Tightened equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates paired with the effect of previously neglected relationships between uncertain parameters of the climate model lower these estimates. We also show that our SC-CH4 estimates are sensitive to model combinations; for example, within one IAM, different methane cycle sub-models can induce variations of approximately 20 per cent in the estimated SC-CH4. But switching IAMs can more than double the estimated SC-CH4. Extending our results to account for societal concerns about equity produces SC-CH4 estimates that differ by more than an order of magnitude between low- and high-income regions. Our central equity-weighted estimate for the USA increases to US$8,290 per tonne of CH4 whereas our estimate for sub-Saharan Africa decreases to US$134 per tonne of CH4.

The influence of welfare spending on national immunization outcomes: A scoping review.

Background: National policies influence the environments in which people live, but the ways in which these national policies influence people's health are not well understood. Welfare spending is one national policy that may influence population health. While some research indicates higher levels of welfare investment may positively influence health, mixed findings contradict this conclusion. These mixed results examining the link between welfare policies and health may be better understood by investigating the relationship between welfare spending and preventative health interventions, such as immunization. Objective: This article's purpose is to summarize the literature studying the relationship between national welfare spending and immunization outcomes. Design: This scoping review used the Joanna Briggs scoping review method. Data sources: The scoping review utilized scholarly databases and a focused gray literature search to find research articles that explored relationships between welfare spending and immunization outcomes. Review methods: Data was extracted from articles, including themes, aims, populations, years of study, methods, and findings. The articles' themes were further analyzed with a word cloud and principal component analysis to determine which themes were more likely to coincide in the literature. Results: Seven articles were included in the review. Most of these articles did not address the relationship between welfare spending or policy and immunizations directly or with rigorous methods. Conclusions: Ultimately, the results of the scoping review suggest a lack of literature regarding the relationship between welfare spending and immunization outcomes. Further research is needed to understand the impacts of national welfare spending on immunization outcomes.

Forged By AIDS, Storied NYC Residence Boosts Aging In Place.

Driven by a mission of justice, Manhattan Plaza and Penn South create beloved communities that care for people at all stages of life.

The worse the better? Quantile treatment effects of a conditional cash transfer programme on mental health.

Poor mental health is a pressing global health problem, with high prevalence among poor populations from low-income countries. Existing studies of conditional cash transfer (CCT) effects on mental health have found positive effects. However, there is a gap in the literature on population-wide effects of cash transfers on mental health and if and how these vary by the severity of mental illness. We use the Malawian Longitudinal Study of Family and Health containing 790 adult participants in the Malawi Incentive Programme, a year-long randomized controlled trial. We estimate average and distributional quantile treatment effects and we examine how these effects vary by gender, HIV status and usage of the cash transfer. We find that the cash transfer improves mental health on average by 0.1 of a standard deviation. The effect varies strongly along the mental health distribution, with a positive effect for individuals with worst mental health of about four times the size of the average effect. These improvements in mental health are associated with increases in consumption expenditures and expenditures related to economic productivity. Our results show that CCTs can improve adult mental health for the poor living in low-income countries, particularly those with the worst mental health.

Is the rise of crowdfunding for medical expenses in the United Kingdom symptomatic of systemic gaps in health and social care?

Crowdfunding for medical care is a new phenomenon but increasingly used by individuals to seek financial help to cover the costs of health care. Ethical concerns have been raised about medical crowdfunding, including implications for equity, resource allocation, medical decision-making, the promotion of non-evidence based therapies, platforms' lack of transparency and corporate interests. Medical crowdfunding efforts may point to shortcomings in health service provision, but they tend to have wider motivations and implications. However, there is no firm evidence base for establishing answers to even the most basic questions, such as who is seeking funds, for what, where and why. In this Essay, we provide an introduction to medical crowdfunding in the United Kingdom (UK). We synthesize what is currently known and the insights that might be gained from an exploratory review of 400 medical crowdfunding campaigns on the GoFundMe UK website: for instance, whether medical crowdfunding occurs in response to gaps in service provision, supports 'queue jumping' and how it relates to 'medical tourism'. We conclude with a call for research on medical crowdfunding in the UK (and elsewhere) as a means to better understand patients' perceived or actual unmet need for health and social care and inform policy development.

The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK.

BACKGROUND: we project incidence and prevalence of stroke in the UK and associated costs to society to 2035. We include future costs of health care, social care, unpaid care and lost productivity, drawing on recent estimates that there are almost 1 million people living with stroke and the current cost of their care is £26 billion. METHODS: we developed a model to produce projections, building on earlier work to estimate the costs of stroke care by age, gender and other characteristics. Our cell-based simulation model uses the 2014-based Office for National Statistics population projections; future trends in incidence and prevalence rates of stroke derived from an expert consultation exercise; and data from the Office for Budget Responsibility on expected future changes in productivity and average earnings. RESULTS: between 2015 and 2035, the number of strokes in the UK per year is projected to increase by 60% and the number of stroke survivors is projected to more than double. Under current patterns of care, the societal cost is projected to almost treble in constant prices over the period. The greatest increase is projected to be in social care costs-both public and private-which we anticipate will rise by as much as 250% between 2015 and 2035. CONCLUSION: the costs of stroke care in the UK are expected to rise rapidly over the next two decades unless measures to prevent strokes and to reduce the disabling effects of strokes can be successfully developed and implemented.

Clustering of health, crime and social-welfare inequality in 4 million citizens from two nations.

Health and social scientists have documented the hospital revolving-door problem, the concentration of crime, and long-term welfare dependence. Have these distinct fields identified the same citizens? Using administrative databases linked to 1.7 million New Zealanders, we quantified and monetized inequality in distributions of health and social problems and tested whether they aggregate within individuals. Marked inequality was observed: Gini coefficients equalled 0.96 for criminal convictions, 0.91 for public-hospital nights, 0.86 for welfare benefits, 0.74 for prescription-drug fills and 0.54 for injury-insurance claims. Marked aggregation was uncovered: a small population segment accounted for a disproportionate share of use-events and costs across multiple sectors. These findings were replicated in 2.3 million Danes. We then integrated the New Zealand databases with the four-decade-long Dunedin Study. The high-need/high-cost population segment experienced early-life factors that reduce workforce readiness, including low education and poor mental health. In midlife they reported low life satisfaction. Investing in young people's education and training potential could reduce health and social inequalities and enhance population wellbeing.

A welfare-theoretic model consistent with the practice of cost-effectiveness analysis and its implications.

I look at three debates in the health economics literature in the context of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA): 1) inclusion of future costs, 2) discounting, and 3) consistency with a welfare-economic perspective. These debates thus far have been studied in isolation leading to confusion and lingering questions. I look at these three debates holistically and present a welfare theoretic model that is consistent with the practice of CEA and can help inform all of these three debates. It shows rationales for the recommendations of the Second Panel and clarifies some nuanced implications for the practice of CEA when taking a societal perspective in the context of distributional CEA and multi-sectorial budgets.

[Impact of the Dependency Act on regional spending on social services]. / Impacto de la Ley de Dependencia sobre el gasto autonómico en servicios sociales.

OBJECTIVE: In this paper we address whether the System for Personal Autonomy and Care of Dependent Persons contributes to increasing the volume of resources of the public social services system (displacement effect) or, on the contrary, whether this development has taken place at the expense of other social services (substitution effect). METHOD: Panel data analysis is used to explain how per capita expenditure on social services evolves in the Spanish Regions under the common regime in the period 2002-2016. RESULTS: The implementation of the Dependency Act is associated with a 14% increase in the level of per capita expenditure on social services. This effect raises 25% when the variable explained is expenditure on current transfers of a social nature. On the other hand, law changes introduced in 2012 and 2013 were associated with a reduction in per capita expenditure on current transfers of around 10%. CONCLUSIONS: This evidence would refute the hypothesis that the System for Personal Autonomy and Care of Dependent Persons had merely a "substitution" effect on autonomous spending on social services.

COVID-19: an opportunity for African governments to rethink social welfare benefits and protection.

The emergence of COVID-19 in December 2019 has highlighted several lessons about Public health emergencies. One important lesson is on the role of social welfare benefits and protection in the overall management of public health emergencies. The absence of a functional and digitalized social welfare system in Africa may render ineffective public health measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The social determinant of disease illustrates the nexus between poverty and health outcomes. Therefore, COVID-19 is an opportunity for African governments to rethink their stance on social welfare benefits and protection; and adopt mechanisms that protect the most vulnerable.

Do welfare benefit reassessments of people with mental health conditions lead to worse mental health? A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There have been cases of suicide following the Work Capability Assessment (WCA), a questionnaire and interview for those claiming benefits due to ill health or disability in the United Kingdom. AIMS: To examine whether experiencing problems with welfare benefits, including WCA, among people with pre-existing mental health conditions was associated with poorer mental health and wellbeing and increased health service use and costs. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of an exposed group (n = 42) currently seeking help from a Benefits Advice Service in London and a control group (n = 45) who had recently received advice from the same service. Questionnaires at baseline and 3-, 6- and 12-month follow-ups. RESULTS: The exposed group had higher mean scores for anxiety (p = .008) and depression (p = .016) at baseline and the control group higher mean scores for wellbeing at baseline (p = .034) and 12 months (p = .035). However, loss to follow-up makes overall results difficult to interpret. The control group had higher incomes throughout the study, particularly at the 12-month follow-up (p = .004), but the differences could have been accounted for by other factors. Health service costs were skewed by a few participants who used day-care services intensively or had inpatient stays. Over the study period the proportion of exposed participants engaged in benefits reassessment ranged from 50% to 88%, and 40% to 76% of controls. CONCLUSION: The hardship of living with financial insecurity and a mental health condition made it difficult for our participants to sustain involvement in a 12-month study and the frequency of benefit reviews meant that the experiences of our controls were similar to our exposed group. These limitations limit interpretation but confirm the relevance of our research. The control data raise the question of whether people with mental health conditions are being disproportionately reassessed.

Estimated societal costs of stroke in the UK based on a discrete event simulation.

BACKGROUND: there are around 100,000 new stroke cases and over a million people living with its consequences annually in the UK. This has large impacts on health and social care, unpaid carers and lost productivity. We aimed to estimate associated costs. METHODS: we estimated 2014/2015 annual mean cost per person and aggregate UK cost of stroke for individuals aged ≥40 from a societal perspective. Health and social care costs in the first and subsequent years after stroke were estimated from discrete event simulation modelling, with probability of progression and length of receipt of different health and social care services obtained from routine registry and audit data. Unpaid care hours and lost productivity were obtained from trial data. UK unit costs were applied to estimate mean costs. Epidemiological estimates of stroke incidence and prevalence were then applied to estimate aggregate costs for the UK. RESULTS: mean cost of new-onset stroke is £45,409 (95% CI 42,054-48,763) in the first year after stroke and £24,778 (20,234-29,322) in subsequent years. Aggregate societal cost of stroke is £26 billion per year, including £8.6 billion for NHS and social care. The largest component of total cost was unpaid care (61%) and, given high survival, £20.6 billion related to ongoing care. CONCLUSION: the estimated aggregate cost of stroke substantially exceeds previous UK estimates. Since most of the cost is attributed to unpaid care, interventions aimed at rehabilitation and reducing new and recurrent stroke are likely to yield substantial benefits to carers and cost savings to society.